It's that time of year. Opening Day for the St. Louis Cardinals falls on a Sunday evening this year, when they'll face the Cubs at Busch Stadium. ESPN will carry the broadcast (as Cards fans collectively sigh) but Fox Sports Midwest will have an hour of coverage before the game so we won't miss the Clydesdales, Hall of Famers and player introductions. Thank goodness!!
I'm going to make my predictions for the season now. I've been thinking of how this season might play out and how everyone will perform for months. Let's jump in...
Cardinals record: 90-72
I've stood by this number for a long while, before and after injuries, and I'm still hopeful for those 90 wins.
Starting Rotation: Carlos-19-9 2.95 ERA
Adam 15-10 3.78 ERA
Wacha 12-10 3.98 ERA
Lynn 11- 11 4.00 ERA
Leake 12-11 3.83 ERA
All of these numbers are improvements over last season. They also might seem a little more optimistic than many are feeling these days. That's alright. Lynn is my only wild card for this year. He was largely consistent before surgery, but predicting the year after Tommy John is nearly impossible. Throwing another wrench into any predictions is the longer recovery time he had compared to most others, as he underwent the surgery in November of 2015.
Outfield: Grichuk-30 Home runs, 260 BA, 95 RBI, 10 DRS, 158 games played
Fowler-14 home runs, 274 BA, 60 RBI, 3 DRS, 155 games played
Piscotty-26 home runs, 280 BA, 102 RBI, 7 DRS, 156 games played
I look for a breakout year for Grich, playing almost every game without trips to Memphis and hitting that 30 home run mark. His defense will more than likely improve in LF. With Fowler, I look for a bounce back year without injury as a solid lead off bat with overall positive defense. For Piscotty, I see the power kicking up a notch while having a decent batting average with plenty of RBI opportunities, ideally batting 4th if he puts it all together. Based on his changed workouts in the off season, he is anticipating better defense, so I'm fairly certain we'll see that.
Infield: Carpenter-27 home runs, 282 BA, 97 RBI, 0 DRS, 147 games played
Wong-4 home runs, 243 BA, 30 RBI, 2 DRS, 118 games played
Diaz-20 home runs, 275 BA, 78 RBI, 2 DRS, 149 games played
Peralta-10 home runs, 253 BA, 62 RBI, -2 DRS, 123 games played
Carp's defense has been a bit of an issue for him, but I'm confident that playing one position all year will help neutralize some of those issues, allowing him to cut down on errors and break even with defensive runs saved. Clearly, I'm also betting on health, with Carp getting to play most games. Kolten's stats are fairly typical based on last year, although the defense in my prediction is up. I don't think he plays close to every game with Greg Garcia and Jedd Gyorko deserving of time off the bench. Either of them can spell Diaz and Peralta as well though. However, they're still being managed by Mike, so beware of too much bright eyed dreaming of Kolten's playing time. With Diaz, I'm expecting a solid defensive year, hopeful for health and fairly confident in his avoidance of a sophomore slump. As Peralta ages, his defense continues a downward spiral, with negative 2 defensive runs being an overly kind prediction of improvement on my part. Again, I don't see him playing most games with Gyorko and Garcia waiting for time to play on the sidelines.
Yadi: 23 home runs, 285 BA, 70 RBI, 6 DRS, 154 games played
Yes, Yadi got his own section. And yes, these numbers are somewhat otherworldly for a catcher turning 35 in July. Did you see him in the WBC though? Have you heard his interviews lately? The man is straight fire and passion these days, moving faster and hitting better than he has in a couple years. Staying healthy will be key, but if he does, I look for an electric year from Yadi.
Bullpen: With Matheny managing the bullpen much like the Swedish Chef, I have so few guesses of how the bullpen will perform this season. I do, however, feel very confident in their abilities and think this is a strength of our team. I know we took a hit recently with Rosey going on the DL, joining Lyons. On the flip side of injury though, we (fingers crossed) get a good look at Soco and get to enjoy repeat performances from Bowman and Oh. Siegrist will pitch decently and potentially be allowed more rest with the addition of Cecil, who has been solid in the past. A rough spring for Cecil doesn't concern me. Broxton will most likely be much of the same, handling low leverage innings and being a mixed bag in all other situations. Honestly, he's the only concern for me out there in the pen. With Rosey returning to a bullpen role, I'm leaning towards him focusing on command and getting those strikeouts again. The key will be for management to give him a specific role and for him to focus on that role. Going back and forth between bullpen and starter can't be how he spends the season.
Overall, I'm feeling positive for the 2017 Cardinals. Watching Spring Training, it seemed the defense was improved from last year, especially on the infield. I see the majority of our players putting in strong efforts and having great years, offensively and defensively. Our pitching staff will see improvement in my eyes, but again, every single game counts. Last year, many said often that "it's only April" or "only May" and we watched the season slip away. When one game is the difference, it lights a fire. No one on this team took missing the postseason lightly and they are ready to play. Game on.
Let's do this Cards!!
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